Italy’s war aims and expected length of conflict

[Turbulent98]

I often come across references to documents which state that Italy had only prepared to fight for a few months. One such is a British document-Weekly Intelligence report number 14 (June 1940) which states that the based upon a report written by Admiral Cavagnari ,the expected duration was three months. The USMM however deny that the Admiral ever wrote it. This is all in a Royal Navy Staff History written in the 1950s. I therefore ask you all here what were Italy’s war aims and how long did they think that it would take to accomplish them?

 

[Dili]

Sitting at peace conference in September 1940 in which they will ask some pieces of France like Nice(Nizza) or Tunisia(French Colony).

Mussolini was probably loosing faculties, he never saw Hitler for an addict gambler.

 

[jwsleser]

This is a trick question....

There are many documents that clearly state that Italy wasn't planning for war until 1942/43. Even with this understanding, Mussolini hadn't articulated any goals for war at that time. Most people look to his statement made in his 10 June 1940 declaration of war which spoke of...

We take up arms to resolve, after having resolved the problem of our continental frontiers, the problem of our maritime borders; we want to break the territorial chains that suffocate us in our sea, since a population of forty-five million souls is not truly free if it does not have free access to the ocean.

... but no military planning to achieve these goals was initiated. Mussolini issued his war guidance in a secret letter dated 31 March 1940 but delivered on 6 April which placed Italy on the defense on all fronts. Only an invasion of Yugoslavia was mentioned, but then only if favorable conditions arose (no plans were ordered for actions to create those favorable conditions). The decision to go to war on 10 June was made in haste and based on the belief that Germany would win. His 'goal' at the time was to be at the peace talks.

It is only at the end of June 1940 that Mussolini began to accept that the war would continue. Even then no long term plan was developed. What followed until September 1943 was a series of 'spur of the moment' decisions initiating actions that weren't tied to any long-term national strategy.

There were documents stating that the nation only had the resources to fight for three-six months.

Pista! Jeff

 

[Turbulent98]

Not a trick question but an an area that I know very little about.Thank you for the reply

 

[jwsleser]

Turbulent98

The trick question comment was an attempt at humor (hence the smiley face). It wasn't a serious statement.

Not even the Italians knew what their war aims were or how long it would take to accomplish them. With all the planning comments stating that Italy would be ready to wage war in 1942/43, no statements were ever made on why they felt they needed to go to war in 1942/43 and what it would accomplish. Mussolini argued that Italy was being diss'ed by the other powers, but I have always believed all of that was more posturing to maintain power rather than a serious plan. Everything was based on opportunity to gain something cheaply rather than a careful long-term strategy to achieve an aim.

The only serious (IMHO) long-term Italian strategy was to remain neutral and try to be the European power broker. This ended in June 1940.

 

[Dili]

A great emotional impact had the Royal Navy controlling of Italian merchants.

Nevertheless due to energy situation Italy had to choose a side. It could not remain neutral if the war extended to late 1940-41
Mussolini choice was premature.

 

[JacobDVX]

I often come across references to documents which state that Italy had only prepared to fight for a few months. One such is a British document-Weekly Intelligence report number 14 (June 1940) which states that the based upon a report written by Admiral Cavagnari ,the expected duration was three months. The USMM however deny that the Admiral ever wrote it. This is all in a Royal Navy Staff History written in the 1950s. I therefore ask you all here what were Italy’s war aims and how long did they think that it would take to accomplish them?

Well... The Duce had his idea of recreating the Roman Empire, which suggests that to do this and sustain it Italy would have to have a permanent war economy with intervals of peace for economic rejuvenation. Not much unlike the USA today. As Thomas Jefferson wrote "every 25 years" a war is needed so perhaps the same principles of imperialist growth would have applied to The Duce's case as well. We see how the dodecanese islands were taken over by Mussolini in the late 20's, then the quelling of Omar around the same time, then the Spanish civil war, Ethiopian war, and second world war, Italy had a permanent mindset that the second world war would be caught, won and new adventures would be all the fascist kingdom after that. You must understand the fascist mindset which is what we are dealing with here, it's doctrine was felt as eternal and it's ambitions for Italy did not have in any way a limited mentality. As we know, however Italy period government did not understand that her natural resources did not outmatch her opponents in quantity, or in the case of rifles, quality.

 

[Dili]

As we know, however Italy period government did not understand that her natural resources did not outmatch her opponents in quantity

I don't know. Italy understood, that is why it had to pick a side.

Dodecanese Islands were taken in Italo-Turkish war , well before Mussolini was in power.

 

[JacobDVX]

I often come across references to documents which state that Italy had only prepared to fight for a few months. One such is a British document-Weekly Intelligence report number 14 (June 1940) which states that the based upon a report written by Admiral Cavagnari ,the expected duration was three months. The USMM however deny that the Admiral ever wrote it. This is all in a Royal Navy Staff History written in the 1950s. I therefore ask you all here what were Italy’s war aims and how long did they think that it would take to accomplish them?

I don't know. Italy understood, that is why it had to pick a side.

Dodecanese Islands were taken in Italo-Turkish war , well before Mussolini was in power.

I do apologize for my missing the date of the dodecanese and placing them in my comment.

 

[jwsleser]

As Thomas Jefferson wrote "every 25 years" a war is needed so perhaps the same principles of imperialist growth would have applied to The Duce's case as well.

First Thomas Jefferson never stated "every 25 years" a war is needed. He did state that the US Constitution should be rewritten every 25 years. Not the same thing.

Not much unlike the USA today.

Second. Please keep modern politics out of our discussions of Fasicst Italy.

No one has disputed that Mussolini had grand dreams, but as I previously stated, Mussolini had presented no concept or plan on how to realized those dreams. Fascism argued that it was in a constant war against those that threatened it, which is a common reframe of dictatorships to maintain power. The eternal external threat justifies the government's need for absolute control as was well illustrated in Orwell's 1984.

As to the OP's original comment, it wasn't that the services had only planned to fight a brief war. They had only planned to fight a defensive war and the state of preparedness was caused more by a lack of resources (ability to stockpile oil, iron, coal, etc.) rather than a perceived need based on a plan that only required to stockpile enough material to wage a brief war.

Pista! Jeff

 

[Wargames]

I agree with Jeff with some additions. Mussolini made rather small demands on France, but which included the French naval bases at Toulon, Bizerte, Ajaccio and Oran be demilitarized. Italy considered itself "bottled up" inside the Mediterranean between France and Britain. As a result, Mussolini ordered British Sollom taken by General Graziani in the expectation that Hitler would launch Operation Sealion by September 17. Having Sollom (which actually became Sidi Baranni) would justify Mussolini's presence at Hitler's peace table. When Hitler failed to invade Britain, Mussolini ordered Mersa Matruh in Egypt to be taken in October (?) 1940 from which to bomb Alexandria and sent bombers to Belgium to bomb Britain. Italy had also built a bomber, though not put into production, that could reach Alexandria. I believe Mussolini's goal with Britain was the demilitarization of Alexandria and Gibraltar, the same as he did with France. This removed Italy being confined to the Central Mediterranean. In turn, this would allow his landgrab of Greece and Yugoslavia. As for the Russian Front, I believe Mussolini was riding Hitler's coattails again, this time to the Baku oilfields he so desperately needed. As for North Africa, I believe Hitler strongly supported it when he offered troops without Mussolini even asking. On his own, I doubt Mussolini had the fuel, the trucks, or the equipment to go beyond Mersa Matruh and he knew it.

As to a timeline, Mussolini expected Hitler to invade Britain no later than September 17, 1940, making that his first timeline for the war or 3-4 months and for which the navy had fuel. Once that date passed, everything went out the window.